The Post will profile each of the nine Breeders’ Cup races to be run next Saturday at Churchill Downs. The Countdown to the Cup spotlights potential nice-price winners as handicapped by reporter Ed Fountaine and columnist Ray Kerrison. Good luck.
ANALYSIS: Welcome to the biggest lottery in the Breeders’ Cup, a million-dollar mad scramble of 2-year-old American colts with limited experience on grass, a bunch of European carpetbaggers looking to get lucky and no fewer than six on the also-eligible list hoping to draw into the race.
The race is so wide open (a euphemism for handicapping nightmare) that the likely favorite, even if you can isolate him, will probably start at 5-1 or longer. The flip side is that if you really like a horse in here, you can make a score. At a mile on the turf, the outside posts would appear to be the kiss of death — except that last year’s winner, Pluck, broke from the extreme outside, gate 13, Go figure.
LIVE LONGSHOTS: Listed at 10-1 in the Daily Racing Form, Caspar Netscher, the European, was beaten only a length in the Grade 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket three weeks ago after a Grade 2 victory at Newbury, both at 6 furlongs. Stretches to a mile here, but he looks to be right in it. Another prospect is Wrote, from the Aidan O’Brien factory, at 15-1, after a promising third in a Grade 2 stake at Newmarket.
THE BET: The best of the American contenders may be Finale, from Todd Pletcher’s barn. A speedy colt, he is 3-for-3 on the grass. He looks right in it. Right behind him is State of Play, unbeaten in two grass races, from the Team Valor-Graham Motion combo which won this year’s Kentucky Derby. Bet them on the nose and over the two longshots — and hope for the best.
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