DG28
Guatemala ,2009.
Lago Atitln.
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Atitln
blu
acqua
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travels
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Domitilla Asquer
Guatemala
lake
water
elementi
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
LR-20111221-DLS_9197.jpg
LR-20111221-DLS_9197.jpg
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2011
austria
castle
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december
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family
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fun
griffin
hohensalzburg
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marlee
play
salzburg
snow
vacation
Thursday, December 29, 2011
James River Sunset
While shooting the downtown Christmas City lights, the sun popped under the clouds for a brief moment, after shooting the sun setting on the buildings, I turned around to see the sun had already sat below the horizon and the James River…..It was quite a nice night for capturing the river and city...
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james
river
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water
sunset
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tom
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photography
tripod
James River SunsetWhile, brief moment, James River
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
20110723_11 Male blackbird (Turdus merula) with his beak full | Gothenburg, Sweden
20110723_11 Male blackbird (Turdus merula) with his beak full | Gothenburg, Sweden
The Web Site the Meat Industry Doesn't Want You to See.
Please watch Earthlings.
Vegan FAQ! :)
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blackbird
turdus merula
23-jul-2011
2011
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bird
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photo photos picture pictures image images foto foton bild bilder
not in the eternity set
blackbirds
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koltrastar
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blackbird, Turdus merula, Gothenburg
One Big Flower
One Big Flower
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California
Henri Matisse
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United States of America
Taylor County Sheriff Department
Taylor County Sheriff Department
Grafton, West Virginia
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Taylor County Sheriff DepartmentGrafton, CountyTaylor County Sheriff Department
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
burning sky
burning sky
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clouds
fernrohr
Monday, December 26, 2011
Grumman HU-16A
Grumman HU-16A
Seen in Vigna di Valle (It)
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Italia
Italy
Itali
Vigna di Valle
museo
museum
Vigna di Valle, Bracciano
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Friday, December 23, 2011
Matt Barkley helps put USC, as a university, in a new light
USC quarterback Matt Barkley is all smiles after announcing that he will return to play one more season for the Trojans. (Luis Sinco, Los Angeles Times / December 22, 2011)
Let's peel back a layer on this Matt Barkley story.
The deeper significance of what he did Thursday afternoon can be easily lost in the noise and nectar of the moment.
Bill Dwyre
Bio | E-mail | Recent columns
Also
Matt Barkley's gift to USC could keep on giving
Quarterback Matt Barkley is coming back to USC
Matt Barkley's delaying NFL career could work out just fine
Matt Barkley's return makes USC a contender for BCS title next season
In the last 24 hours, the obvious has been beaten like a drum. Barkley didn't take the money and run. Barkley is a fine young man, a class act and a role model. Heisman trophies and national titles are now real possibilities.
There are so many ways to say these things, and the media found them all. News and chatter come so fast now, and are so indistinguishable from one another, that the end measure becomes the eventual snowball at the bottom of the hill. The size of the Barkley snowball was unmistakable.
But it needs to be said that, while Barkley did a great thing for his football team, he did even more for his university. He took one small step for the Trojans, one giant step for USC.
Consider that he did exactly what Andrew Luck did at Stanford at the end of last season. Luck cited many of the things about teammates and the college experience that Barkley did, and he stayed. But we were less shocked by that one.
Why? Because Luck was from Stanford. And Stanford has long been the embodiment of academic excellence walking comfortably alongside athletic excellence. Stanford kids are usually there because they are the type who get to a fork in the road and look for a side path. When Luck did what he did last year, it seemed merely a further validation.
USC kids? Not so much.
Matt Leinart chose to hang around for another year, even after winning the Heisman. But it was never clear whether that decision was based on a desire to fight on, or on an injured elbow that wouldn't have immediately served him well in the pros. Mark Sanchez, of course, jumped off the Trojan horse before he grew into his saddle.
As an academic institution, USC should not be judged merely on go-pro or no-go-pro decisions of its star players. But, like it or not, high-profile athletes have much more to do with the image of a university than they should.
It wasn't that long ago that USC's image was that of a football factory. There always seemed to be stories about classes in map reading and football players studying for those classes in their shiny new convertibles, "purchased" at a dealership owned by an alum.
A personal favorite was when The Times' sports investigative team uncovered a class at USC in something like sand castle design. It was run by a friendly old professor with season tickets. One semester, it had 35 students, 32 of them either football or baseball players and the other three relatives of football coaches. The reporters found that all but one, a baseball player, had received an A.
The story ran, but the huge question never was answered: What had that baseball player done to get a B?
Those days are long gone. Annual university academic ratings often place USC near the top. USC's endowment has swelled and its faculty holds international stature. Occasionally, in certain categories, its ranking will top UCLA, which must rankle the Bruins more than, well …50-0.
But as leaders such as Steven Sample and others slowly changed both the reality and the image, the football monster reared its ugly head again. Pete Carroll brought back the good old days, as well as a lot of the good-old-boy alums who cared much more about the BCS than GPAs. Carroll wasn't an intentional cheat or a bad guy. He just liked it loose and fun, and it was.
Until Reggie Bush got caught.
The damage of that setback, still mostly perception but harmful nevertheless, was mitigated when Max Nikias took over as school president and made Pat Haden the face of the future. Haden made the good old Trojans nervous. Still does. He was one of them, a former star quarterback. But he was also a Rhodes Scholar (never trust a guy who goes off to England to sit in musty libraries in a tweed sportcoat) who yapped constantly about academics and clean programs.
When the NCAA came in with its wrecking ball, the good old Trojans demanded that Haden sue. The rallying cry seemed to be: Don't they know who we are? Haden said no, that the football team would take its medicine and work through this with dignity and class. His message was that this, too, shall pass.
And so it has.
But little did anybody know that a college junior with good grades, a rifle for a throwing arm and a pot of gold beckoning him would stand up in Heritage Hall and, in a two-minute speech, do more than almost anybody or anything else in recent time to validate what USC wants to be and has become.
Now, high school freshman football players who wanted to be Mark Sanchez want to be Matt Barkley first. Every university professor who despises the amount of money and energy used on football at the expense of his or her program despises football a tad less.
It is easy to imagine college presidents around the country, upon viewing a snippet of Barkley on the evening news, sitting down in a big easy chair, lighting a pipe and muttering: "Thank God."
That Barkley did what he did in a similar time frame, with reasoning and articulate presentation similar to Andrew Luck, is an un-measurable plus for USC. Stanford will always be "The Farm." But Barkley has done a perfect job of demonstrating that USC has a quality crop too.
bill.dwyre@latimes.com
Matt Barkley, Matt Barkley, Andrew Luck, Andrew Luck, the Trojans, football players, football players, USC, USC, USC, football team, football team, Mark Sanchez, Stanford
2011-12-22 098
2011-12-22 098
pipe goes down canyon to water tanks
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hike
EU Keeps Airlines in Carbon Market
BRUSSELS—The European Union's top court backed the inclusion of the airline industry in the bloc's carbon-trading market, in a decision likely to escalate a diplomatic row between the EU and its biggest trading partners.
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Wednesday's widely expected ruling comes as the U.S. and others intensify pressure on the EU to delay the expansion of its emissions trading plan to include airlines on Jan. 1, or scrap it altogether in favor of a new international deal.
The U.S., China and others have threatened action if their airlines are forced to buy permits to account for their emissions of carbon dioxide, a move that trade groups claim could cost €20 billion ($26 billion) to the end of the decade. The European Commission, the executive body of the EU, has estimated that the plan could increase the cost of a single trip ticket by between €2 and €12, depending on the length of the flight.
"The directive including aviation activities in the EU's emissions-trading scheme is valid," according to a statement issued by the Luxembourg-based European Court of Justice shortly after its ruling. The court, whose ruling can't be appealed, was expected after a court advocate-general's opinion supported it earlier this year.
A new EU law includes airlines in the bloc's carbon-dioxide Emissions Trading System, beginning Jan. 1, when all airlines will have to hold permits to cover CO2 emitted by aircraft landing and taking off from EU airports.
The U.S. said 41 countries have registered objections to the ETS as a unilateral action in breach of international law. Lawmakers are pushing bills that would ban U.S. airlines from complying, and China has hinted the plan could affect orders for Airbus jets.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood wrote to the EU last week urging the bloc to suspend the program and negotiate with other governments on how to limit airlines' CO2 emissions globally. They said that if the EU didn't move that way, the U.S. "will be compelled to take appropriate action."
Critics of the EU favor a global plan to tackle emissions overseen by the International Civil Aviation Organization, a branch of the United Nations. However, the EU grew frustrated at decade-long efforts to establish such a program, and are wary of a pledge by ICAO that it could secure agreement on the framework of a global deal by the end of next year.
The EU court was called to rule on the case after AMR Corp.'s American Airlines, United Continental Holdings Inc. and the Air Transport Association of America, a trade group, challenged the law in a U.K. court in 2009. The U.K. court, in turn, asked the Court of Justice to rule on legality of the EU's plan under international agreements.
"The court did not fully address legal issues raised and has established a damaging and questionable precedent," Airlines for America, as the Air Transport Association is now known, said Wednesday. "Today's decision does not mark the end of this case and A4A is reviewing options to pursue in the English High Court."
Non-EU airlines are particularly hard-hit by the plan, which measures emissions for an entire trip starting or ending at an EU airport.
"We won't get agreement on a global approach if states are throwing rocks at each other because Europe wants to act extra-territorially," said Tony Tyler, chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, the global trade group.
The ETS is the central plank of EU's environmental policy, which is focused on putting a price on carbon-dioxide emissions and capping their number. It aims to encourage companies to invest in clean technologies to reduce emissions in the long term, rather than buying more permits to emit more carbon dioxide.
An allowance traded on the ETS gives the holder the right to emit one metric ton of carbon dioxide.
The EU will distribute up to 85% of the airline industry's allowances free of charge. Above that level, carriers will need to buy carbon credits through the ETS.
According to the EU plan, airlines will have to hold permits to cover emissions for the whole length of a flight taking off or landing in the EU, a much-contested provision that critics say is an imposition of rules outside its borders. But in Wednesday's ruling, the court said it doesn't undermine the "full applicability" of the EU rules.
There also are concerns that the EU's action could disrupt the continuing deregulation of the industry.
The court said the EU isn't a party to the Chicago Convention, the treaty that has governed international aviation since 1944, so it isn't bound by it, even though EU countries, including the U.K. where the legal action was started, are bound by the convention
"It's a slap in the face for the Chicago Convention," said Brian Havel, director of the International Aviation Law Institute at DePaul University in Chicago.
—Doug Cameron and Daniel Michaels contributed to this article.
Write to Alessandro Torello at alessandro.torello@dowjones.com
Air Transport Association, The European Union, carbon dioxide, American Airlines, emissions trading, European Court of Justice, Court of Justice, The European Commission, United Continental Holdings Inc., airline industry, airline industry, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association, Chicago Convention
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Danis
Danis
Celebrating the Bargam New Testament dedication
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Papua New Guinea
PNG
Madang
Province
Niugini
Bargam
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dedication
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Looking at the dog 2
Looking at the dog 2
Tags
maxicam
maxicam@bk.ru
amigomax@list.ru
Young
Canon EOS 60D
Russia
boy
child
kids
photo
photography
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Winter Season - Frisco Flyers 12-18-11
Winter Season - Frisco Flyers 12-18-11
Tags
TX
Photographer
USA
Photography
Dallas
Hentschelphoto
Sergio Hentschel
Hentschelphoto.com
Texas
70.0-200.0 mm f/2.8
Frico Flyers
flyers
Winter Season, Frisco, Flyers, Sergio, Hentschel
Big Dog, Big Cat
Big Dog, Big Cat
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Turkey
Europe
Asia
Middle East
Istanbul
Trkiye
Anadolu
Kavai
Kavagi
Animal
Cat
Saturday, December 17, 2011
En attendant la neige... # 80
En attendant la neige... # 80
Le 10 novembre 2011, Orcires Merlette (Champsaur - Hautes-Alpes).
Promenade photographique automnale dans les stations de ski des Hautes-Alpes...
Awaiting the snow... Automn photographic walk in the french winter sport resorts of Hautes-Alpes.
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en attendant la neige
orcieres merlette
orcieres 1880
station de ski
champsaur
hautes-alpes
snow
alp
alps
mountains
ski resort
Orcires Merlette ebook download, photographique, Hautes-Alpes, stations de ski, Champsaur
Friday, December 16, 2011
France - Normandie
France - Normandie
Website | Facebook | Myspace | Wordpress | Twitter | Flickriver | You Tube
© 28/09/2011
---
Merci vous tous pour vos commentaires et favs
Thank you all for your comments and favs
;-)
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2011
2011_09_28
Abbaye
Abbaye du Mont-Saint-Michel
Basse-Normandie
Europa
Europe
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Extrieur
France
Heure bleue
Heure magique
Horizontales
Manche
Mont Saint-Michel
Normandie
Normandy
Panoramique
Religions
Western Europe
www.beauvir.com
Европа
Architecture
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Morning lights
Morning lights
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Helsinki
Finland
Ruoholahti
morning
December
2011
sea
clouds
Fujifilm Finepix HS10
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
:: Destination Unknown ::
:: Destination Unknown ::
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fpoe
beach
sea
boat
blue
white
summer
pastel
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Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Sam Farmer: Todd Haley and Tony Sparano are in same boat set adrift
Haley" border="0" width="580" height="351" />
Coaches Tony Sparano, left, and Todd Haley were fired by the Dolphins and Chiefs, respectively, on Monday. (Photos by US Presswire and Getty Images)
Kansas City's Todd Haley and Miami's Tony Sparano had something in common as NFL coaches. They both enjoyed early success, briefly putting their teams on an upward trajectory, before those clubs leveled off and began to head back down.
Haley and Sparano now have something else in common.
Sam Farmer
E-mail | Recent columns
Also
Seahawks pull away for 30-13 victory over Rams
Knee sprain sidelines Packers' Greg Jennings
USC's Matt Barkley, Matt Kalil, T.J. McDonald deal with 'mayhem'
Tim Tebow pulls off his weekly miracle
Heisman Trophy is a poor predictor of future football success
Both were fired Monday, three weeks before the end of the regular season.
They were the second and third firings this season, coming on the heels of Jacksonville dismissing Jack Del Rio two weeks ago.
"Timing in this situation is always difficult," Chiefs owner Clark Hunt said at a news conference. "There never seems to be a right time. We just felt the inconsistent play the team had experienced really throughout the season, including [Sunday's 37-10 loss to the New York Jets], made today the right day to do it."
The Chiefs were 10-6 last season, won the AFC West and made the playoffs for the first time since 2003, a dramatic turnaround from Haley's 4-12 record in his first season.
The Chiefs were 19-26 in the regular season under Haley, who was hired in 2009 to replace Herm Edwards.
Sparano made an even bigger splash at the start of his career with the Dolphins. He took over a 1-15 team and led it to an 11-5 finish and a postseason berth. No coach had ever led a one-win team to the playoffs the next season.
The Dolphins were 7-9 in each of the next two seasons, however, twice finishing third in the AFC East. This season's team lost its first seven games before blowing out the Chiefs, 31-3.
Miami went on to win three of its next four games — its only loss coming by a point to Dallas on Thanksgiving — and suddenly was among the league's hottest teams. But Sunday's 26-10 home loss to Philadelphia was evidently the last straw.
Sparano was 29-32 in nearly four seasons as coach.
The Dolphins have promoted assistant head coach Todd Bowles to interim coach for the remainder of the season.
The Chiefs will hand the reins to defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, who coached the Cleveland Browns from 2005 to 2008, although Hunt and General Manager Scott Pioli will study their options after the season.
These won't be the last of this season's firings. Others who could be shown the door include Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell, St. Louis' Steve Spagnuolo, and Tampa Bay's Raheem Morris. And to varying degrees all four NFC East coaches — Philadelphia's Andy Reid, Washington's Mike Shanahan, Dallas' Jason Garrett and the New York Giants' Tom Coughlin — are under the microscope. Houston's Gary Kubiak has the Texans in the playoffs for the first time in their history, but merely getting there might not be enough; he probably needs to win a postseason game to breathe easy.
As for filling the job permanently, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross said he is looking for a "young Don Shula," referring to the Hall of Fame coach who led the franchise to two Super Bowl victories.
"We're looking for the best head coach," Ross said. "It's important that the head coach and the general manager be able to work together, so you're not going to find someone who has a conflict to start with. You want to have the time to talk to people so you create that chemistry that's required to create a winning environment."
Ross says he wants a young Shula, but many observers figure he is truly looking for an established name, perhaps Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher or Brian Billick — each has won the Super Bowl — or maybe Jeff Fisher or Reid, who each led his team to one.
The Chiefs might try to land one of those coaches, or maybe one of a handful of rising assistant coaches. This is a somewhat unfamiliar situation for the franchise, as Haley was only the second in-season firing in Chiefs history. Paul Wiggin was the first in 1977.
On Monday, Kansas City running back Jackie Battle said he could see both sides of the situation.
"We went to the playoffs last year. I mean, that has to mean something," he told the Associated Press. "The season didn't go the way we wanted this year, but he's proven he can win in the league. I don't know if it's fair or not, but it's part of the business."
sam.farmer@latimes.com
Todd Haley, Tony Sparano, Kansas City, Kansas City, the Dolphins and Chiefs, Matt Barkley, Dolphins, US Presswire, Jack Del Rio, Matt Kalil, T.J. McDonald deal, New York Jets, Getty Images, Haley, Philadelphia, Todd Bowles, New York Giants, NFL coaches
In Line With The Norfolk Pines
In Line With The Norfolk Pines
Riding the Sky View Observation Wheel @ The Esplanade.
Fremantle, Western Australia.
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phil's camera
fremantle
freo
western australia
australia
ferris wheel
big wheel
observation wheel
sky view
esplanade park
esplanade reserve
norfolk pine tree
norfolk island pine
araucaria heterophylla
trees
park
public space
cityscape
Sky View Observation Wheel, Norfolk PinesRiding
Monday, December 12, 2011
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Messerschmitt Bf 109 G-2
Messerschmitt Bf 109 G-2
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Germany
Deutschland
Berlin
Gatow
RAF
Planes
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GDR
WWI
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World War
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Fighters
Warbirds
Fliegerkorps
Flugzeug
самолет
аэроплан
d'avion
aeropln
letadlo
Messerschmitt, WarWorld
2011-11-23 11-26 Las Vegas 163 The Mirage
2011-11-23 11-26 Las Vegas 163 The Mirage
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Foto
photo
image
picture
Bild
flickr
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Sony
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77V
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Saturday, December 10, 2011
Last Light
Last Light
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sland
s
vetur
winter
water
vatn
tokina
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sk
mountain
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ice
iceland
canon
50d
10stopp
litir
island
kalt
landslag
snjr
sun
sunrays
slin
tokina1116
ingvellir
ingvallavatn
Friday, December 9, 2011
Bargam New Testament
Bargam New Testament
Celebrating the Bargam New Testament dedication. For the inside of this book, see tokplesbaibel.org/mlp/index.htm
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Papua New Guinea
PNG
Madang
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Niugini
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Bargam New Testament dedication, Bargam New TestamentCelebrating
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Potlogi
Potlogi
youtu.be/7W8tLolQA1c
Kurt Masur masterclass on Mendelssohn's "Italian" Symphony
.
.
.
photo:
Potlogi Palace near Bucharest [hard to reach on bad roads, partially ruined and neglected]
built by Constantin Brancoveanu
finished in 1698
www.monumenteromania.ro/index.php/monumente/detalii/en/Pa...
historo.wordpress.com/tag/potlogi-palace/
Brncovenesc architectural style [incomplete list of buildings]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%C3%A2ncovenesc_style
Constantin Brncoveanu [1654 – 1714] was Prince of Wallachia between 1688 and 1714.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantin_Br%C3%A2ncoveanu
Wallachia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallachia
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Potlogi
Palace
Palatul
palat
arhitectura
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manor
Valahia
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Brancoveanu
Constantin Brncoveanu
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ara Romneasc
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ruin
ruined
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istorie
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noncoloursincolour
Constantin Brancoveanufinished, Masur masterclass, Mendelssohn, architectural style, Bucharest
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Willie Wagtail - Rhipidura leucophrys
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Niagara River
The Niagara River flows north from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario. It forms part of the border between the Province of Ontario in Canada and New York State in the United States.
The river, which is occasionally described as a strait,[5] is about 56 kilometres (35 mi) long and includes Niagara Falls in its course. The falls have moved approximately 11 kilometres (6.8 mi) upstream from the Niagara Escarpment in the last 12,000 years, resulting in a gorge below the falls. Today, the diversion of the river for electrical generation has significantly reduced the rate of erosion.
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Niagara
River
Canada
USA
US
Falls
Niagara River
New York State, Province of Ontario, Niagara River, Niagara Falls, Niagara Escarpment, Lake Ontario, electrical generation, Lake Erie
looking back
looking back
footprints on the beach
Tags
sand
wave
beach
hawaii
waikiki
water
foot
prints
footprint
footprints
walk
Monday, December 5, 2011
Kyle Polson from Winchester, KS with Jefferson County North High School
Kyle Polson from Winchester, KS with Jefferson County North High School
Created by Kyle Polson from Winchester, KS
School: Jefferson County North High School
Teacher: Penny Linscott
Title: “Peace”
Dream Theme: Peace
Materials and Techniques Used: Acrylic Paint and Painted Canvas Drop Cloth
Created at Washburn University’s High School Art Day 2011
Workshop: “Boost Your Inspiration: TAG IT Topeka”
…
Print a Dream Rocket Flyer:
docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=tr...
Subscribe: www.feedblitz.com/f/?Sub=757612
Learn how to participate at: www.thedreamrocket.com
Tags
The Dream Rocket
International Fiber Collaborative
Saturn V Rocket
Space
NASA
Astronaut
Conservation
Aliens
Twin Towers
Health
Family
Diversity
Glitter
Christmas
New York
Nova
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clean
trees
water
trash
planting
green
people
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Group
Equality
Paint
Flag
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school
Home
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Save
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Jefferson County North High SchoolCreated, Kyle Polson, Washburn UniversityпїЅs High School Art Day, Dream Theme, Winchester, KS, Jefferson County North High SchoolTeacher, Winchester, Dream Rocket
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Street of Philadelphia
Street of Philadelphia
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K tiu bang ca M
Соединенные состояние америка
building
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lumire
penn
street
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Travel
voyage
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Saturday, December 3, 2011
Currency Breakup Would Be Unlike Any Other
Past breakups of currency unions provide some guideposts to how Europe's deepening financial crisis could end if its leaders can't find a solution. But its case is unique.
History suggests two types of monetary unions survive the longest, says Gabriel Stein, a director of Lombard Street Research, a London-based economic-analysis firm. The first are those where "a whale is tied to a minnow"—like the U.K. and Ireland from the 1920s to the 1970s and Belgium and Luxembourg from the 1920s to the 1990s. The second is where roughly equal-size entities form a fiscal union—like the U.S.
The euro zone doesn't fit into either category.
Historical Examples of Currency Blocs
Latin Monetary Union—This accord between Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland was no monetary union in the modern sense of the word. Moved to gold standard in 1878.
Scandinavian Monetary Union—This agreement between Sweden, Denmark and Norway was more of a fixed exchange-rate regime that saw notes and coins circulating between the three members. Ended in 1905.
Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union—Austria and Hungary descended into hyperinflation and authoritarian governments after its monetary union breakup, not an optimistic model for the EU. Collapsed in 1919.
Soviet Union—This was a political and economic breakup, side by side, which approached monetary anarchy in the immediate aftermath. Collapsed in 1992-93.
Czech-Slovak Monetary Union—The lessons for the euro seem to be not to preannounce a breakup, as it will only hasten speculation. Collapsed in 1993.
--Source: UBS
In a recent series of reports into the dissolution of past common currencies, economists at UBS Investment Research conclude that the cost of breaking up the euro "is so enormous as to be unimaginable."
They identified four key traits in the fragmentation of past currency unions, including "capital flight from perceived weak to perceived strong parts of the union."
The most visible evidence of this today is the "flight to safety" in government bond markets from European countries regarded as weak, like Greece and Spain to those viewed as stronger—chiefly Germany.
More subtly, people are drawing money out of banks in peripheral economies, most notably in Greece, mainly because people are either hoarding euro notes or shifting money to bank accounts in other euro-area economies.
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As the crisis intensifies, the pressures on the monetary union can grow. In a study of the breakup of the Czech and Slovak monetary union in 1993, economists Jan Fidrmuc and Julius Horvath say importers and exporters helped bring the matter to a head. Expecting a Slovak devaluation, Slovak importers repaid their debts to Czech exporters as quickly as possible, while Czech importers did the opposite, hoping to settle in devalued currency.
In this case, the economists say nationalism prevailed over economics and the union broke up—even though there was little economic gain from the breakup.
On the other hand, it also shows that not all monetary union breakups have been costly. Another example of a low-cost separation: Ireland's split from the U.K. in 1979. Yet the Czechoslovak and Irish breakups weren't done in a crisis, which economists generally agree is the worst time for a split. "It doesn't have to be a disaster, but the way it's being done in Europe is going to be disastrous," Mr. Stein says.
As in Czechoslovakia and unlike what is now in prospect in Europe, some past monetary unions dissolved after a political breakup, rather than before. The Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union fell apart in 1919 after the fragmentation of the Austro-Hungarian empire following World War I. The ruble zone broke up in 1992-93 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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The Austro-Hungarian case provides one example of what the UBS economists point to as a second common trait when currency unions fragment: governments use the split as an opportunity to raise revenue by seizing assets of their citizens. Some successor states enforced conversions of deposits over a certain limit into bonds. In the Czech and Slovak case, limits were placed on the amount of cash that could be converted at the outset of the breakup.
A third common trait of breakups is that they usually have to be accompanied by bank holidays and capital controls—to stop capital flight. In today's environment, electronic banking websites would have to go dark during the adjustment to new domestic currencies.
Prospects of a breakup could even trigger anxieties among holders of euro notes, Mr. Stein says. Each note is identified by a national marker before the serial number (Greece's is Y). People might perceive, even in the face of assurances from the authorities, that Greek notes could end up being worth less than those where the serial number is preceded by X (Germany).
A more fundamental modern-day concern follows from the consequences of the unprecedented integration of the euro-zone financial system and the extensive cross-border holdings of assets by financial institutions.
Devaluations would force banks in countries that didn't also devalue to write down their assets, likely forcing governments to intervene to save them. Financial institutions in Germany and other strong countries would suffer hits because of their assets in the weaker economies.
Mr. Stein says close financial integration was evident between Norway and Sweden in their monetary union with Denmark, which broke up in 1905. But there, business contracts had retained references to their national currencies and the countries continued to issue separate banknotes.
On the face of it, the closest precedent of a monetary union without a fiscal union was the Latin Monetary Union based on a treaty of 1865 between Belgium, France, Italy and Switzerland. It was based on a double standard of silver and gold as a base for coinage, and morphed into a gold-standard regime in 1878. But in reality, the UBS economists argue, it was "no monetary union in the modern sense of the word."
UBS analysts identified a fourth and final trait associated with a breakup: deeply dissatisfied populations. "The economic circumstances that surround a monetary union breakup tend to be extremely severe, because the costs of a breakup are so high. This means that at least some part of the monetary union is likely to be subject to risks of significant civil unrest," they argue.
The good news? Past performance is, as investment managers like to say, no guarantee of future results.
Write to Stephen Fidler at stephen.fidler@wsj.com
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Friday, December 2, 2011
Doug on Holiday
Not my best photo, just a fun snap of The Doug in a holiday mood. =P
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Thursday, December 1, 2011
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Election Day in Egypt
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Submitted by Nancy Parks, Egypt Competitiveness Project
Thought you'd like to see a photo of our lovely staff proudly displaying their inked fingertips – proof of their voting. Many of them had to wait 4-5 hours to vote. For some, it was the first time in their lives that they had voted.
A really momentous day in Egypt!
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